With the 2025 federal election having concluded, recent election trends with the shifting age demographic in Australia towards the younger generation clearly playing in effect. With voter preferences moving towards issues concerning problems younger Australians face such housing, student debt and living affordability are playing an increasing role in shaping parties’ policies and appeal.
In January 1901, the establishment of a federal parliament marked the formal beginning of Australia’s national governance under a unified constitutional framework. Since then, two parties have emerged as the dominant political forces. While both the Australian Labor Party and the Coalition—which comprises the Liberal Party and its longstanding partner, the Country Party (now the Nationals) —have undergone various structural changes over time, they have remained the most enduring players in the Australian political landscape. However, over the last 10 years, we have seen a steady decline in the two- party voting system and an increase in Australia’s preference for independents and minor parties’ in both federal and state elections (Browne & Le, 2024). The emergence of teal independents in the 2025 election has evidently reduced voter confidence in the Liberal Party acting as a major catalyst in the decline of major parties(Tillett, 2025).
Figure 1: Total major party primary federal election votes
Source: The Tally Room
The decline in the red and blue lines illustrates a downward trend in the vote share that is required to win an election since both parties now rely more on preferences to win a seat. However, despite the declining trend, Labor’s victory in the 2025 federal election, coupled with Greens leader Adam Bandt losing the seat of Melbourne, raises questions about the future of Australian politics and whether the dominance of the two-party system will ever come to an end. The results clearly demonstrate that the Labor-Liberal duopoly has created a system where it is more challenging and more expensive for independents and minority parties to compete. This entrenched two-party system has effectively marginalised alternative voices, making it difficult for smaller parties or independent candidates to gain traction, regardless of their policy offerings or public support (Seccombe, 2023). The combination of electoral barriers, limited media exposure, and financial constraints means that challengers often face an uphill battle to gain recognition or influence in a political landscape dominated by the major parties.
However, with a new wave of younger and more progressive voters entering the electorate, we may see significant shifts in what the population expects from Australian politics. This demographic is increasingly vocal about the issues that matter most to them—issues that, at times, have been overlooked or inadequately addressed by the traditional parties. The housing crisis, cost of living, and student debt continue to be key issues for young Australians, with both Labor and Liberal parties yet to address them effectively (Wilkes 2025).
Australia’s housing crisis has become a pivotal issue influencing the political leanings of younger generations. As property prices soar, many millennials and Gen Z individuals find homeownership increasingly unattainable, prompting a shift in their voting behaviours toward parties advocating for housing affordability and systemic reforms.
In the 2025 federal election, the Labor Party secured a decisive victory, a result partly attributed to the growing electoral influence of younger voters who now outnumber Baby Boomers (Coombes, 2025). This demographic shift underscores the urgency of addressing housing affordability to meet the expectations of a generation facing economic challenges. Labor’s housing policies aimed to alleviate these concerns by allocating $10 billion to construct 100,000 homes for first-time buyers and expanding the First Home Guarantee scheme, allowing purchases with a 5% deposit without mortgage insurance (Evans, 2025). However, experts caution that such measures may inadvertently inflate property prices in the short term, potentially exacerbating affordability issues (Barrett & Commins, 2025).
Figure 2: City dwelling values
Source: CoreLogic | ABC News
Beyond federal initiatives, state and local governments have embraced the National Planning Reform Blueprint to streamline housing development processes and promote higher density living near essential amenities (InfoTrack, 2025). These efforts aim to address supply constraints that have long plagued the housing market. Despite these policy interventions, scepticism persists among young Australians. Surveys indicate that a significant portion of young women and gender-diverse individuals have contemplated the risk of homelessness, reflecting deep-seated concerns about the effectiveness of current housing strategies (YWCA Australia, 2025). This disenchantment has led to increased support for minor parties and independents, signalling a demand for more radical solutions to housing inequality (White & Chung, 2025).
Figure 3: Rental vacancy rates
Source: CoreLogic | ABC News
The economic implications of housing unaffordability extend beyond individual hardships; they influence broader societal trends, including delayed family formation and reduced consumer spending. As younger voters continue to grapple with these challenges, their political preferences are likely to favour parties that prioritise comprehensive housing reforms and address the structural factors contributing to the crisis.
The Higher Education Contribution Scheme—Higher Education Loan Program (HECS-HELP), one of the earliest forms of substantial debt incurred by Australian students, through the government run scheme, has seen students seek financial assistance from political parties in recent elections. At its inception in 1989 through the Hawke Labour Government, students paid $1.8 thousand per year, where repayment began at an income threshold. It later underwent transformations like the tiered HECS system by the Howard Government, renamed HECS-HELP as part of the Higher Education Support Act 2003 and formalised Commonwealth Supported Places. The Turnbull Government later adjusted repayment thresholds in 2017, while the Albanese Government’s 2024 indexation reform, including a 20% debt reduction and a raised repayment threshold, directly responded to youth-led concerns about affordability and cost of living. (APH, 2021)
While the history of HECS-HELP charts a history of reforms, its growing prominence in political discussions reveals deeper indications that young Australians increasingly view student debt as a political issue. Over the past two decades, the average HECS debt has surged from $12,557 in 2005–06 to $30,763 in 2022–23, a 145% increase, outpacing the 57% inflation rate during the same period. (Australian Institute, 2024) This leads to the increasing number of young Australians feeling misled by the nature of HECS, which, whilst being interest-free, is indexed to the lower of Consumer Price index (which measures inflation) or Wage Price Index. Recent high inflation rates and Australia’s cost-of-living crisis have significantly increased debt balances (Mamamia, 2025). The burden of HECS debt has impacted young Australians’ ability to make significant life decisions, such as stepping forward as a first-home buyer, as HECS debts are considered in loan assessments, which reduces borrowing capacity and adds weight to their shoulders. The effect is apparent, urging young Australians to pay more attention to HECS policy and rewarding parties that acknowledge their financial stress.
With increasing market uncertainty and economic pressures , many young voters view student debt as a long-term financial burden rather than a temporary investment. In response, the Labour Party has planned a 20% reduction in all student loan debts, including HECS-HELP, VET, and Apprenticeship Support Loans. It has also vowed to lift the minimum threshold for repayments by more than $10,000 a year, from about $54,000 to $67,000. (9news, 2025) This policy resonated strongly towards younger voters, contributing to Labour’s recent success in electorates with a high concentration of university-educated citizens.
Figure 4: 20% Student debt cut
Source: Ministers of the Education Portfolio| 9News
On the other hand, the Liberal Party has opposed Labour’s debt reduction plan, labelling this initiative to capture young voters as ‘elitist’ and ‘profoundly unfair’ to other Australians without study loans (ABC, 2025).The lack of a compelling alternative to address HECS debt may contribute to the Coalition’s falling appeal to young voters. The Greens are bringing a more aggressive approach for young voters to consider, advocating for the complete abolishment of student debt and promoting free university and TAFE education (Greens, 2024). Though Labour’s more immediate and tangible debt relief measures gathered a broader appeal amongst voters, speaks volumes to the demographic shift in voters’ preferences.
With Labour’s success in the recent federal election and policies trending towards those addressing the concerns of the younger generation increasing, demonstrates the shift in politics. It is becoming clearer that intransigence to shifting preferences is not the way parties will find political success, evidenced by the growth of minor parties and independents and the decline of the Coalition. The influence that the younger generation have will increase in the coming election, and greatly affect the way parties approach election policies in the future.
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Tillett, A. (2025, May 5). Election 2025: Four trends that defined this election. Australian Financial Review. https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/four-trends-that-defined-the-shock-election-result-20250505-p5lwmv
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Barrett, J., & Commins, P. (2025, May 9). Labor wants to fix Australia’s housing issues – but there’s little hope for those not already on the ladder. The Guardian; The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/may/10/labor-wants-to-fix-australias-housing-issues-but-theres-little-hope-for-those-not-already-on-the-ladder
Coombes, S. (2025). Liberals were crushed by millennial rage. The Australian. https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/peter-duttons-liberals-were-crushed-by-millennial-rage/news-story/d8091781dab3cf7e817ab65c78b33d89
Evans, J. (2025, April 15). Labor and the Coalition are promising more housing supply and first home buyer help. What will it mean? Abc.net.au; ABC News. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-16/what-will-housing-promises-do-to-the-market/105179262
Muller, S. (2025, May). Australia’s housing crisis: what are the potential impacts of increased development? InfoTrack. https://www.infotrack.com.au/news-and-insights/australias-housing-crisis-what-are-the-potential-impacts-of-increased-development/
White, R., & Chung, F. (2025, May 14). Huge Aussie election result everyone missed. News; news.com.au — Australia’s leading news site. https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/well-win-sooner-or-later-legalise-cannabis-party-has-high-hopes-after-surprise-election-result/news-story/c3ba6f81ca77969da28e845e3ebcbe6f
New polling on housing affordability for 2025 election – YWCA Australia. (2025, April 23). YWCA Australia. https://www.ywca.org.au/news/new-polling-on-housing-affordability-for-2025-election/
Parliamentary Library. (2021). Chronology of higher education reforms in Australia (1987–2021). Parliament of Australia. https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_departments/Parliamentary_Library/Research/Chronologies/2020-21/HigherEducation
Langford, B. (2025, May 5). Young people are paying more attention than ever to politics. Here’s what they care about this election. Mamamia. https://www.mamamia.com.au/election-young-people/
Richardson, D. (2024, February 20). People are starting with much larger HECS-HELP debts than in the past – and it’s only going to get worse. The Australia Institute. https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/people-are-starting-with-much-larger-hecs-help-debts-than-in-the-past-and-it-is-only-going-to-get-worse
9News Staff. (2025, April 28). Student debt cuts: Albanese government’s HECS-HELP changes explained. 9News. https://www.9news.com.au/national/student-debt-cuts-albanesse-labor-government-explained/e8c8172d-1864-4466-a7d5-eb4c41a0fad6
Dziedzic, S. (2025, April 23). Coalition policies on the chopping block as Peter Dutton looks to fund student loan plan. ABC News. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-23/coalition-policies-on-chopping-block-dutton/105208066
Australian Greens. (2024, May 18). Greens announce plan to wipe all student debt, putting an extra $5,500 in people’s pockets. https://greens.org.au/news/media-release/greens-announce-plan-wipe-all-student-debt-putting-extra-5500-peoples-pockets
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